Monsoon 2018 forecast: Met dept predicts normal rainfall, at 97% of LPA

Parts of South, Northeast India to Witness Rain, Thunderstorm: IMD

Parts of South, Northeast India to Witness Rain, Thunderstorm: IMD

The country is likely to witness normal monsoon this year, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on. Unlike the IMD, Skymet had predicted a 100 per cent normal Monsoon, with an error estimate of plus-minus 5 per cent. Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate forecasts.

'Monsoon will be 97 per cent of long period average, which is normal for the season, ' the Indian Meteorological Department said on Monday.

Despite "normal" forecast, the monsoon can be affected by the El Niño conditions. A normal monsoon is in the range of 96-104 percent of the LPA.

Why good rain is vital for Indian economy and what is its significance in the current political landscape?

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The IMD will issue the update in early June, as a part of the second stage forecast.

The date of onset of monsoon will be announced in the middle of May.

A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsson. If the average rainfall is below 90 per cent of LPA, the Monsoon is termed "deficient". India receives 70% of its annual rainfall in the four-month period, which in turn irrigates over half of its farm lands lacking assured irrigation.

The IMD's reasoning for the unexpected break is that it was caused by intra-seasonal variability as Pacific cyclones over Bay of Bengal pulled the monsoon currents towards them, leading to the disappearance of rains over Central and Northern India, plunging them on the brink of drought.

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